Halloween And Bonfire Night ProspectsAdded : Sunday at 12:38 October 2017 is set to go down as being a drier and warmer than normal month which is something that has been quite common in recent years. Now that the clocks have gone back and the darker nights are upon us so we look ahead to Halloween and Bonfire Night.
Many of you will remember that Halloween 2014 was the warmest October 31st on record when maximum temperatures soared to 23.5°C in the south of the UK thanks to some very warm air pushing north from North Africa. So what does this year have in store? Let's take a look at the forecast synoptic chart for Tuesday:
High pressure over northern France will be dominating the weather towards the south of the country, but troughs and fronts will be lurking close to the north and west. So what does this mean? A look at the forecast rainfall for Tuesday evening from the high resolution Arpege model shows these fronts up well, bringing some rain and drizzle to parts of the north and west:
So if you're heading out trick or treating it's looking dry for many, and certainly not as balmy as it was three years ago with temperatures for many dipping back into single figures:
As for Bonfire Night, well this is still a week away so lower confidence at this range. However there is currently reasonable agreement from the numerical model output of a rather cool and unsettled set-up becoming established by then. Here's the latest offering from the GFS ► model:
The ECMWF ► model:
And the GEM model:
All models are currently indicating chilly north-westerly winds affecting much of the country, these winds bringing showers, especially towards the north and west in the wake of a band of rain pushing southwards.
The finer details, such as timings and intensity of any rain, will be determined nearer the time, but a quiet and settled Bonfire night under high pressure currently seems unlikely. Having said that though, even if the current charts materialised, there would still be a fair amount of dry and chilly weather around. As it stands, any displays scheduled for next Sunday night presently look to have the better prospects in terms of staying dry compared to next Saturday evening.
Have fun folks, but please stay safe!
METEOROLOGIST: BARBER |