Global Discussion : Edouard And The ECMWFAdded : Tuesday at 11:40 If you have been checking numerical models over the last few days, you would have seen the remnants of what was Tropical Storm Edouard moving in from the Atlantic. The ECMWF ► and GFS ► both disagreed on the track and intensity of the system with the ECMWF ► taking it as a sluggish low pressure wave across Southern England :-
The GFS ► on the other hand had gone for the system continuing to retain some form of structure and cross Northern parts of the UK.
The difference came down to one thing, how Edouard was picked up by the upper trough off the coast of Eastern USA and how it interacted with the jet stream.
Those of us who use numerical models know that the ECMWF ► usually holds the upper hand with regard to tropical systems. Despite the upgrades to the GFS, it never seems to sit comfortably with the track, development and eventual decay of tropical storms.
As a result, we kept discounting the GFS ► output and stuck with the ECMWF ► solution in the "hope" that the GFS ► would eventually come around to the ECMWF ► way of thinking. This morning? Here is the run from the GFS ► :-
Yup, you can see that it now sits in the same envelope as the ECMWF ► with Edouard remaining a rather unimpressive wave depression bringing some rain across Southern areas later tomorrow and into Thursday.
As we head into meteorological Summer and Autumn, the remnants of these tropical systems will start to show up on our synoptics a little more often. The UK traditionally sees a few remnants of these systems through the season and this year should in theory be no different.
It's worth remembering though, that when these systems do eventually make their way to our part of the world, the ECMWF ► model will be the one we tend to listen to most. Obviously, we watch all the global models, but one will tend to have the more authoritative voice with regards to tropical remnants.
METEOROLOGIST : MARSH |