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NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Jun 12 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall over some sections of the northwestern Caribbean, the far southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and over South Florida: Abundant tropical moisture is surging northward from the western Caribbean, across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, also over South Florida and across the adjacent western Atlantic waters. This moisture is practically to the southeast of a surface trough that extends from north-central Florida to a broad and elongated area of low pressure (Invest AL90) that is near the west-central Florida coast. A surface trough continues from this area of low pressure southwestward to near the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. In addition, upper-level diffluent flow present across the region is helping to support clusters of disorganized scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms that extend from just west of the western tip of Cuba, northeastward across the far southeastern Gulf of Mexico, the lower Straits of Florida to along and inland the central coast of Cuba and north from there to over parts of South Florida. Recently developed scattered showers and thunderstorms quickly moving eastward are inland the Florida peninsula from 26N to 29N between the east coast and 82W. This activity also reaches into the western Atlantic west of 75W. Cloud to surface lightning, strong gusty winds, rough seas and low visibility are ongoing within this convective activity over these areas. The shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to continue across the region through Fri. Mariners transiting these regions should exercise caution. Please refer to bulletins and forecasts from your local weather forecast offices for specific local information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 21W from 03N to 15N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Numerous strong convection exists from 05N to 10N between the wave and 30W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W from 02N to 15N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 150 nm west of the wave from 04N to 10N.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 69W south of 15N moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near the northern tip of the wave.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 78W south of 15N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave is becoming ill defined as it encounters low to middle-level southeast wind flow surging into the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers and thunderstorms within 180 nm west of the wave from 11N to 14N are moving northwest. Similar activity is from 13N to 18N between 80W-84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coastal plains border of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau southwestward to 10N19W. The ITCZ extends from 08N21W to 05N31W and from 05N35W to 04N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 42W and 48W. Similar activity is northwest of the ITCZ from 05N to 08N between 51W-56W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information about heavy rainfall over the far southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

A stationary front extends from northeast FLorida to Florida coast at 30N84W, where it transitions to a stationary front to southeastern Louisiana and westward from there to inland Texas near Houston/Galveston area. Elsewhere, a trough extends from northern Florida south-southwestward to the broad and elongated area of low pressure described above under Special Features. A 1008 mb low, part of this area, is analyzed just southwest of Sarasota, Florida. A trough continues from the low southwestward to 25N84W, and to the northeast part of the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen over the southeastern Gulf waters south of 24N and between 83W and 86W, including the northern Yucatan Channel and inland western Cuba between 83W and 85W. Scattered to broken low clouds in cyclonic fashion, with drizzle and light rain are present with the Special Features low pressure from 27N to 29N east of 84W to inland the Florida coast near 82W. Gentle to moderate winds are across the basin, except for moderate to fresh southeast to south winds between the western tip of Cuba and the northeast part of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are in the range of 2 to 4 ft, except for slightly higher seas of 3 to 5 ft over the NE and southeastern Gulf areas.

Hazy conditions are over the SW Gulf due to ongoing agricultural fires are in Mexico.

For the forecast, the broad and elongated area of low pressure near the west-central coast of Florida that is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms has moved little over the past few hours. It is expected to move northeastward across Florida and move offshore of the U.S. southeastern coast within the next day or so. As a result, unsettled weather in the form of numerous showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds will persist over the southeastern Gulf waters through Fri night as a trough lingers over the eastern Gulf. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires in Mexico will continue to affect mainly the SW Gulf through Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information about heavy rainfall that is over some sections of the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

The pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure, lower pressures in the deep tropics, and the trough of low pressure across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is resulting in fresh to strong east to southeast winds over the east and central sections of the basin, and moderate to fresh southeast to south winds over the northwest part of the sea. Seas range from 7 to 9 ft over the central Caribbean to 4 to 7 ft elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over some areas of the northwestern Caribbean and from just south of central Cuba to near 18N. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere west of about 80W.

For the forecast, high pressure located NE of the area combined with the Colombian low and the passage of tropical waves will support fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean through Thu night. Moderate to fresh southeast winds are expected over the northwestern Caribbean likely through Fri as a trough of low pressure remains over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Otherwise, scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue across portions of the northwestern Caribbean through the rest of the week as a surge of tropical moisture persists across the region.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from low pressure of 1012 mb that is north of the area near 32N76W southwestward to 31N80W and to inland northern Florida. Meanwhile, unsettled weather in the form of numerous showers and thunderstorms, with locally gusty winds and higher seas, are over most of the western part of the forecast waters as well as inland some sections of central and South Florida and Straits of Florida as upper-level disturbances continue to move from W to E along and near the stationary front in combination with additional moisture being channeled eastward across the Florida peninsula from the broad and elongated area of low pressure that is over the eastern Gulf of Mexico near the west-central coast of Florida. A surface trough supported by an upper-level low is analyzed from near 29N32W to 20N46W. Overcast mostly mid-level clouds with embedded isolated showers are noted from 20N to 29N between 40W and 49W and from 25N to 28N between 20W and 40W. A weak trough is along 52W/53W from 10N to 23N. No significant convection is noted with the trough. Another trough extends from just north of the area near 32N61W to 23N55W. Scattered to broken low clouds, with possible scattered showers, are seen from 27N to 31N between 54W and 59W. A 1020 mb high center is near 29N63W.

Strong high pressure of 1031 mb located well north of the discussion area in the vicinity of the Azores has an associated ridge that reaches southwestward to the central Bahamas. The pressure gradient between this ridge, the 1012 mb low just north of the area and the stationary front off the southeastern U.S. coast supports fresh to strong south to southwest winds north of 27N between 75W and 79W. Seas over these waters are 4 to 7 ft. The remainder of the subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of the gradient related to the 1031 mb Azores high, which is supporting mainly fresh northeast winds between the coast of W Africa and the Cape Verde Islands. South of the ridge, moderate to locally fresh trade winds are over the tropical Atlantic waters, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Saharan Air dominates the lower to middle atmosphere across the Atlantic from about 10N to 20N and roughly between Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast W of 55W, expect little change to the unsettled weather conditions through the end of the week as a broad and elongated area of low pressure near the west-central coast of Florida continues to contribute to the coverage of showers and thunderstorms by sending additional moisture east-northeastward to the offshore waters around the NW Bahamas and northward from there. The low pressure is expected to move northeastward across Florida and move offshore of the U.S. southeastern coast within the next day or so. Although upper-level winds are expected to be only marginally conducive, some slow development is possible while the system moves offshore of the U.S. southeastern coast. A trough may linger from near the NW Bahamas to near 31N75W from mid-week through Fri night. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected over the western Atlantic ahead of this system during the next couple of days.



Updated : 12/06/2024 15:00:01

2024 Storm Names

Storm Storm Name Storm Status
1
Alberto Allocated
2
Beryl Allocated
3
Chris Allocated
4
Debby Allocated
5
Ernesto Allocated
6
Francine Allocated
7
Gordon Allocated
8
Helene Allocated
9
Isaac Allocated
10
Joyce Allocated
11
Kirk Allocated
12
Leslie Allocated
13
Milton Allocated
14
Nadine Allocated
15
Oscar Allocated
16
Patty Allocated
17
Rafael Allocated
18
Sara Allocated
19
Tony Allocated
20
Valerie Allocated
21
William Allocated
22
Alpha Allocated
23
Beta Allocated
24
Gamma Allocated
25
Delta Allocated
26
Epsilon Allocated
27
Zeta Allocated


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