The Autumn Battle ContinuesAdded : Saturday at 12:30 After what has been a remarkable summer, the weather across the UK is finally beginning to look rather more typical for September. The seemingly endless spells of heat and sunshine are now behind us and, while there will still be some pleasantly warm and settled weather at times, the Atlantic is beginning to flex its muscles as the transition into autumn gathers some momentum.
The general pattern through the coming week is essentially going to be a battle between the Azores High to the southwest and increasingly active areas of low pressure moving across the North Atlantic. At times the Azores High will ridge northeastwards towards the British Isles, allowing conditions to settle down with some decent spells of September sunshine. At other times, however, the Atlantic lows will win the battle and push their associated frontal systems eastwards across the country :-
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As is often the case with this type of setup, northern and western parts of the UK are likely to see the greatest influence from the Atlantic. Here there will be spells of rain or showers accompanied at times by some brisk winds, while southern and southeastern areas should generally see longer drier intervals as the Azores High offers a little more protection. This northwest / southeast contrast is clearly reflected in the accumulated rainfall chart out to the end of the coming week :-
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As we move deeper into the second half of September and beyond the equinox, the Atlantic traditionally becomes an increasingly important player. However, there could be a curveball this year in the form of an exceptionally quiet Atlantic hurricane season.
Tropical systems and their remnants can occasionally interact with the North Atlantic jet stream and have a significant influence on the downstream weather pattern towards Europe. With tropical activity so unusually subdued this year, one of the traditional autumn wildcards is largely absent for the time being. That doesn't necessarily mean a quieter autumn for the UK, but it could make the battle between the Azores High and the increasingly active North Atlantic particularly interesting to watch over the next few weeks.
METEOROLOGIST : BARBER |